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Florida, Flagler

Fire Weather Warning

Statement as of 5:19 AM EST on November 21, 2008

Expires 6:00 PM EST on November 21, 2008


... Red flag warning in effect from 11 am this morning to 6 PM this
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a red
flag warning... which is in effect from 11 am this morning to 6 PM
this afternoon.

For today... dry air and breezy conditions behind a cold front
will produce red flag conditions across most of the area. Relative
humidity values will drop to as low as 25 percent with durations
below 35 percent of up to 6 hours. In additions... winds will
increase to 20 mph with higher gusts.

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now... or will shortly.




Public Information Statement

Statement as of 7:03 AM EST on November 21, 2008


... Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia winter outlook 2008-09...

The climate prediction center's official forecast for the 2008-09
winter season (december 2008 through February 2009) is for equal
chances of above or below normal average temperatures and for below
normal precipitation across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.

One of the key patterns that is monitored to determine the character
of the winter season is the phase of the El Nino-southern
oscillation, or enso. The presence of a strong El Nino (or la nina)
correlates with higher (lower) probabilities of wetter (drier) than
normal winter conditions across the southeast United States.

This year however... enso neutral conditions are expected to continue
through the winter season. In this environment other large scale
atmospheric patterns such as the North Atlantic oscillation (nao)
and Arctic oscillation (ao) play a larger role in influencing storm
tracks. Patterns such as these occur over shorter time scales, which
makes them difficult to predict over the course of an entire season.

Since the combination of these atmospheric patterns will ultimately
determine the character of our winter, their unpredictability beyond
just a few days means that there remains uncertainty regarding the
frequency, timing and magnitude of temperature extremes and
precipitation this winter season. Also, since these other patterns
can change quickly, enso-neutral Winters are often characterized by
great variability in temperature and precipitation within the season.

Extrapolation of fall trends indicate that the first part of the
winter season may be characterized by a negative phase of the nao,
with the pattern trending more to the positive phase sometime in
January. A negative nao correlates with colder weather for southeast
Georgia and northeast Florida... so if this were to occur, we would
expect temperatures for much of December to average below normal,
with a switch to an overall warmer regime during January into
February. A consequence of this variability is that for the entire
winter... these swings would result in overall temperatures for the
season averaging near normal... with equal chances that they could be
somewhat either above or below the long term normals depending on
the length and magnitude of the warm and cold periods.

Climate studies conducted by the National Weather Service office in
Jacksonville revealed that southeast Georgia and northeast Florida
experience the most freeze and hard freeze events when there is not
a strong El Nino or strong La Nina signal. Also, most of our extreme
precipitation patterns occur during strong El Nino (wet) or strong
La Nina (dry) seasons. Historically there tends to be little
departure from normal during weak enso and neutral phases.

The last 10 years have seen a trend toward drier Winters in our area
overall. Combined with a neutral enso event and the expected
configuration of other atmospheric patterns... we would expect this
Winters precipitation to be somewhat below normal.


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